Category Archives: Uncategorized

I’ve been reading Nassim Taleb’s(Black Swan guy) books lately, as well as some of the work of Kahneman & Tversky (behavioral economics guys). They have lots of interesting ideas that apply to economics but also more broadly to all interactions among humans, including politics.

Here’s an outline of the two related topics I wanted to talk about and get everyone’s thoughts:

Assumption of rational actors (Nassim Taleb)

• predictability/chaos
• mathematical tractability
• game theory (ludic fallacy)

Intuitive vs. rational thinking (Daniel Kahneman)

• heuristics (System 1)
• reasoning (System 2)

Please see comment below for a discussion of the figures.

Linear plot:

Log plot:

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A very ironic start to my day:

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I see the finely bred true conservatives in the old neighborhood are still the same as ever.

I defer to Groucho Marx on club membership.

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It’s that time of the week again, when we connect for another town hall meeting in the Village of the Darned.

Thank you ctlaw for hosting and administering this call for us!

• Admin

BDB still wants somebody, multiple somebodies, or multiple nobodies out there to volunteer to speak on interesting subjects.

If the software tells you that you’re the only caller, don’t you believe it! Press on with the access code and you’ll probably find us in there!

US: 515-604-9908

Access Code: [see chat in “BDB Chat” tab above]

International Local Dial-in Numbers

Albania +355 4 454 1702
Argentina +54 351 569-7183
Australia +61 2 8077 0505
Austria +43 1 2650524
Belgium +32 3 294 11 50
Brazil +55 11 3042-5274
Bulgaria +359 … Continue reading →

. . .on Senator McCain and the health (er, um MEDICAL) care bill vote.

I have been on vacation folks, in case you wondered where I have been.

I have finally acquired my fiftieth state, having travelled, stayed overnight and met the folks in the other 49 over the decades. The Red Headed Irish Wisecracker and I cashed in those credit card points and headed into the North.

Just a few impressions. We tended to get out into the rough and Alaska has a lot more rough than smooth. The cities and towns are few and the rest is is nature primeval.

We met fine folks out there, self reliant folks who seem to be solidly based in reality.

I enjoyed the tour. immensely. We put over 1900 miles on the GMC pickup we rented and saw some fantastic sights.

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I write a weekly book review for the Daily News of Galveston County. (It is not the biggest daily newspaper in Texas, but it is the oldest.) I have been doing this for nearly a dozen years, and am reprinting some of the older reviews here. Books I feel are still worthwhile. I was a science fiction reader as a kid. (Still am.) I am a sucker for a reprint of long-out-of-print SF from that era, especially short story collections. Like this one:

Go back in time with futuristic sci-fi book

By Mark Lardas
Correspondent

Published February 11, 2007

“Interstellar Patrol II: The Federation of Humanity,” by Christopher Anvil (edited by Eric Flint), Baen Books. 648 pages. $26.

Space flight science fiction had a golden … Continue reading →

Today is the 48th anniversary of the landing of Apollo 11 on the moon. Arthur Clarke and Robert Heinlein discuss it:

https://youtu.be/b3LhFaPDeD0?t=26s

One of the striking aspects of the discussion was the universal optimism among the participants. Even Cronkite was unwavering, saying, “You can’t stop progress, and this is progress… We stop a lot of other things. It can’t be done.” Which member of the media would make such a statement today?

Senator John McCain has not always been on my side, but I am on his side in his fight against cancer. I wish the great man well, and if he cannot be well, then I wish him comfort.

Today was the 10th race in a 20 race series of F1. It was held at the Silverstone Racetrack in England, a momentous venue.

F1 was created in 1950, right there at Silverstone. It is one of the old, famous tracks, unlike some of the tracks you find elsewhere, which are newcomers to the racing.

Lewis Hamilton took pole with a stunning lap about half a second ahead of #2 place. He had won 4 previous races at Silverstone, including the last 3 in a row. Clark and Prost are the only ones who have won 5 English Grand Prix’s, Mansell 4. Clark and Prost, however, won at a variety of tracks, not Silverstone only.

The race was quite dramatic. Although Hamilton was on the pole, Haikennan in … Continue reading →