The Tea Party constellation of groups and individuals is in a state of flux. Central to the change is the strategy to take in 2012; pragmatism or dogmatism, and frankly, it will require both.
I suppose this vexes every political movement, but the pragma/dogma dilemma is particularly striking the Tea Party groups. On one hand, the Tea Party is largely a subset of traditionally Republican voters, with a healthy dose of libertarians and Constitutional fundamentalists thrown in. These are the people who found the Republican party too passive and pliable in years past. This makes them a naturally ideological movement, prone to reject a reasonable candidate with a decent shot at winning because he or she fails one or more hot-button tests.
[pullquote]they were still furious at Republicans, but mainly for being too much like the marxists across the aisle[/pullquote]
On the other hand, these are in large part the people who stayed home in 2006 and 2008, and saw the horror of their ways by 2010. They were still furious at Republicans, but mainly for being too much like the marxists across the aisle. When push came to shove, as Peggy Noonan pointed out quite early, the Tea Party did not break off and try to field an actual third party. The deep wisdom of this is as obvious as the results were rewarding. This gives them a one-and-zero record of pragmatist victories.
I have a theory that all of mankind’s problems are caused either by moral hazard or a poorly-designed database. In this case, I’ll take the moral hazard as the likely cause. The difficulty for a “subset” movement is to resist becoming a splinter. Splinters not only lose support from the main, but they have a disproportionate amount of power over the main group through a Kingmaker effect. Yet if there is no credible threat of the subset withdrawing from the majority, then they have no real effect, and the majority cannot thereby be convinced.
Several pundits right and left have remarked that the Tea Party is dead now, yet I assure them that this is not the case. People like me have despaired of convincing the likes of John Boehner that the likes of Hal Rogers must go. And so we watch and wait for targets of opportunity. If the Republican party feels that the coast is clear, this is an illusion. The Tea Party is in the tunnels underfoot, the canopy overhead. Newt Gingrich discovered that broad swathes of the right will no longer be bought off with a bit of double-talk the way they always had.
Much will depend upon the GOP field’s response to events of the last two years. The foot-dragging and “hush now” negotiations over the Continuing Resolutions, with our only effective leverage off the table before it even began, was an infuriating display of GOP-knows-best, and will not be forgotten. Issues like this burn in the memory of sidelined and perhaps even betrayed Tea Party supporters from coast to coast. To top it off, the Republican leadership won’t deign to visit center-right outlets, but spend their media time playing pinch-and-squeal on the leftist mainstream shows.
[pullquote]the GOP knows that it can abuse the base to an unprecedented degree, because no matter how bad they get, they can’t approach the badness of the Obama administration[/pullquote]
This is the other side of the moral hazard: the GOP knows that it can abuse the base to an unprecedented degree, because no matter how bad they get, they can’t approach the badness of the Obama administration. This is the dirty, seamy side of politics, where your own friends count on your mutual enemy for contrast, to hold you hostage for trips you do NOT want to take. Not in my life has there been so troublesome a “hand that feeds” issue on the right.
Yet, taking potshots at Republicans is really not the point. At this stage, I am quite comfortable with open battles between candidates and faction–it is the only way we can weed out bozos like Newt Gingrich. But there will come a time to close ranks and present a unified front. Will the Tea Party be able to hold their numbers through that process?
I sincerely hope so: the fate of the Republic turns on this election.
