Author Archives: drlorentz

drlorentz

About drlorentz

photon whisperer and quantum mechanic

Poll Results You Won’t See Reported

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I was wasting time looking through the Rasmussen site earlier and came across their survey about whether the country is headed in the right direction or on the wrong track. Surprisingly, the numbers look pretty good right now, especially when compared to the entire Obama regime. The trend for right direction has been positive since the election, reaching values unseen in the entire tenure of Mr. Obama.

right

Since there are fluctuations in this statistic, I’ve also plotted a four-week moving average along with a polynomial fit. Not to make too much of this but clearly the trend is favorable. Even discounting the rececnt spike as … Continue reading →

Fat tails and risk

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I’ve read Nassim Taleb’s work on and off over the years. If you’re not familiar with Taleb, he is the author of The Black Swan, which got noticed after the economic crisis of 2008. I took a quick glance through his twitter feed today and found this video that might be of interest. I’ve gotten tired of the argument that there’s a greater risk of being struck by lightning than being a victim of terrorism. He explains why it is wrong to make comparisons of risks from terrorism to risks from more commonplace hazards.

In general, Taleb is quite sound. Taleb understands the president and why he has been so effective:

I was expecting that Trump would reset the tax code, foreign relations, etc. But I … Continue reading →