Many of us on the right have come to believe & to say in louder & louder voices that it\u2019s over: The (1)free market-(2)strong defense-(3)we\u2019ll talk about maybe doing something about abortion, (3*)but no, we won\u2019t! coalition of the Reagan era is over. Now, it\u2019s change or become a minority party, with or without a massive organizational-ideological collapse. & it\u2019s happening right before our eyes. 2016 is the most interesting year for conservatism since when? I think it\u2019s been a generation since anything this troubling has happened\u2026<\/p>\n
So last year I was telling people on\u00a0Ricochet & wherever I could get them to listen: If you think you\u2019ve only got a messaging problem, you have no idea what a problem you really have! If you think, it\u2019s mostly that you just haven\u2019t figured out how to tell the American electorate what great things conservatism can bring to America, you\u2019ll see the real anger & hysteria of\u00a0an electoral year!\u00a0Even at a broader level\u2013people are not buying the notion that the free market is really good for everyone & that whatever\u2019s wrong, more economic conservatism will fix it\u2013there\u2019s no victory ever coming your way.<\/p>\n
This year, my fellow Ricochetti & others are starting to say, you know, you\u2019ve got a lot to learn\u2013we\u2019ve got a lot to learn\u2013from Mr. Trump\u2019s supporters. Sure, we can\u2019t turn the party over to anger or populism or what seem to be the cries of defense, punishment, & fighting. But this is no\u00a0longer a question of\u00a0a few\u00a0constituencies with little money & less influence, do we deal with them or ignore\u2019em<\/em>? At this point, the party nomination is being taken over by means of populist electioneering. About a third of the delegates are counted & the only people who are dead certain to lose associated their names with the party on foreign policy, & to some extent on domestic policy. There is now no reason to believe the next third of the electorate will look radically different.<\/p>\n Some are still saying: These voters don\u2019t matter really, either because we can take them for granted or because they\u2019re unnecessary to our coalition<\/em>. Psychologically, this comes down to saying the primary electorate is in a state of hysteria & the GOP electorate is bewildered by this disturbing show, but not really persuaded by the two candidates whose victories are preceded & succeeded by their telling the party establishment, Drop dead! At this point, if there were no party establishment, they have created it & persuaded the electorate it exists & has to be beaten badly. The electorate either agrees or really does not disagree\u2013& no one else can bend their ear.<\/p>\n These are lone voices. Stronger are the voices that call Mr. Trump mad or worse & his success a harbinger of doom. These people are not simply wrong\u2013they may be mostly right\u2013but they do not seem to take into account that it\u2019s either too late or too early to ascribe blame by claiming to describe what the world is like, as though they were not part of it & their opinions &\u00a0actions did not affect it. (This is rather like conservative complaints about the culture: The complaints are often blind to whether they themselves are making things better or worse.) This is an election in a country where politics mostly seems to mean elections. & morality requires us to say: Elections have consequences.<\/p>\n So we have to deal with this electorate. I propose a psychological analysis, both because it fits with the problems of elections & because it allows us to avoid some moralistic tendencies. I don\u2019t want to hear that the party\u2019s gotta burn down! I don\u2019t want to hear that the crazy people have to be ignored! I\u2019m going to try & persuade you that it\u2019s not the best thing we can do together right now. I propose to you to think of Mr. Trump\u2019s electorate as people previously ignored & disrespected. I hope I can persuade you to think of ways in which the basically free-market opinions we mostly share can be put together with an electorate that\u2019s really despairing over the future, or the lack of one.<\/p>\n I understand that this means that we have to say, we\u2019re somewhat at fault. The last generation & the age of the GOP Congress & Presidency have not worked out for the people now voting their anger. So that anger is not irrational. We have to make sure it becomes even more rational than that by trying to see in what ways it can make sense\u2013in what conservative ways. So let\u2019s not dismiss it as class war, protectionism, & identity politics. That guarantees not only a Dem victory, but the collapse of the GOP coalition without liberals having to do anything to appeal to the voters we disrespect on principle. We have to find some agreement, not only disagreement & find a way to balance them that\u2019s actually attractive to these voters.<\/p>\n I\u2019ll go further: We have to say, the age of Reagan is over! I\u2019m not trying to write history here or to tell people what their lives mean\u2013only to think of a way to look at the political situation, to see if it makes sense. So this is just as a way to figure out what\u2019s so wrong with the party, electorate, & chattering classes\u2013they neither understand each other or really seem to like each other! There is deep psychological chaos being sown in the coalition. So time has passed & let\u2019s think about how\u00a0this generation after the Cold War conservatism is different! I\u2019m going to say at some point, so we need to learn from Reagan how to build a coalition & strengthen, not doom a party. But I want upfront to say: Let\u2019s not be using Reagan to prop up candidates & wishful thinking about the electorate. It\u2019s too late!<\/p>\n Maybe my ideas don\u2019t work out or aren\u2019t persuasive\u2013but I notice I\u2019m getting far more attention & far fewer\u00a0condescending remarks than last year. I\u2019m not saying I told you so: I didn\u2019t see Mr. Trump coming or any of these things. I\u2019m not in the business of prophecy, I don\u2019t believe success is its own justification, nor do I think people who ignored me were wrong to do so. All I\u2019m saying is, it looks like I have another chance to persuade people & I want to make the best of it & my message is the same: Conservatism doesn\u2019t suffer from a messaging problem: No rhetoric nor no advertising can help. They can only harm, inasmuch as they delude us further & farther! Conservatism suffers from a kind of arrogance typical of moral, decent people. I\u2019m sorry to say unpleasant things. But I think we need to think about how what\u2019s right about us may cause trouble for our understanding of politics.<\/p>\n Just think about whether you find it natural to suspect that prosperity & prosperity talk can\u00a0be bad for America. When you hear conservatives saying, we need more growth, that\u2019s the ticket!\u2013do you find yourself saying, you\u2019re lying<\/em>!, or, would that it were doable, but you\u2019re not the guy to do it<\/em>!, or, sure, we need prosperity & growth, but we need other things, too, so let\u2019s talk about more than GDP growth<\/em>!, or maybe something else, but just as skeptical? I think more & more conservatives are\u00a0in this position! But very few people look at these really counter-intuitive possibilities.<\/p>\n So also with the possibility that morality is blinding us. We\u2019re pretty decent people\u2013not me, especially, I\u2019m more of an exception that proves the decency of folks who treat me decently even if I don\u2019t exactly deserve it\u2026 But is it really so hard to believe, for example, that an innocent guy has no idea he should be looking for alibis nor no idea he might be accused of anything?\u2013So he wouldn\u2019t be prepared to deal with sudden shocks: Being decent mostly means not expecting bad things to happen. Well, do you think the\u00a0primary results so far are a good thing? So we need to start thinking somewhat differently.<\/p>\n I would say, broadly, we need to think of the sort of stuff conservatives talk about endlessly as a terrible political education. We need to think that the things we hold to be good are only available to us as the tenuous & endangered conclusion of a long line of reasoning & action. In other words, it\u2019s where we want to get, but it\u2019s going to be really difficult to get there. Talking about those things now, as I believe I have predicted, but am at least always saying, is not doing anything good. It\u2019s preventing us from thinking of other things & it\u2019s not persuading others to join us.<\/p>\n So maybe it is time to say, drop dead, gorgeous! I think it\u2019s time we consider it, at least: How about we think, It\u2019s our problem, it\u2019s our burden to bear, it\u2019s our job to persuade people to vote GOP, to vote conservatism, & to do so by appealing to their actual experiences, not to our own! That is to say, not to take for granted everyone wants to be like us & will do it if only we tell them in the most principled or the most flattering way! Instead, to look for who these people are & what their opinions are\u2013not to tell them our opinions are better & here\u2019s a great argument proving it!, but in order to learn about their\u00a0experiences & their own interpretations their experiences, so we can then talk to them about what common ground & what friendship we can build.<\/p>\n I believe conservatives need to lose the arrogant belief in the strength of arguments. I believe I\u2019ve done a good job of arguing that, but I fear, as I say, arguments are not enough. Repeating them over a year seems to me necessary as well. Trying to make the case anew & to appeal to experiences we have shared & worries we share also seems to me necessary. I\u2019m not sure all of this is enough. I certainly don\u2019t think I\u2019m the man for the job. It\u2019s your country & I\u2019m a foreigner, but, I hope, a friend. I\u2019m only doing it because I don\u2019t see anyone else doing it\u2013I only take hope because I’ve see others, on Ricochet & elsewhere, doing at least similar things: Testifying to other experiences & opinions & encouraging us to change.<\/p>\n Many of us on the right have come to believe & to say in louder & louder voices that it\u2019s over: The (1)free market-(2)strong defense-(3)we\u2019ll talk about maybe doing something about abortion, (3*)but no, we won\u2019t! coalition of the Reagan era is over. Now, it\u2019s change or become a minority party, with or without a massive organizational-ideological collapse. & it\u2019s happening right before our eyes. 2016 is the most interesting year for conservatism since when? I think it\u2019s been a generation since anything this troubling has happened\u2026<\/p>\n So last year I was telling people on\u00a0Ricochet & wherever I could get them to listen: If you think you\u2019ve only got a messaging problem, you have no idea what a problem you really have! If you think, it\u2019s mostly that … Continue reading