{"id":6089,"date":"2011-07-21T20:02:16","date_gmt":"2011-07-21T11:02:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/haakondahl.com\/blog\/?p=1531"},"modified":"2011-07-21T20:02:16","modified_gmt":"2011-07-21T11:02:16","slug":"fascinating-weather-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/balldiamondball.com\/blog\/fascinating-weather-update\/","title":{"rendered":"Fascinating Weather Update"},"content":{"rendered":"

This is one of the most interesting weather updates I have had the pleasure to read, especially since it concerns the fate of a system which used to be a menacing typhoon, and then a collapsing tropical storm, and is at the time of this writing, a mere tropical depression. \u00a0From reading the series of these updates, I get the feeling that there has been lively debate (possibly with thrown crockery) at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center<\/a>, which uniformly turns in a great product. I reproduce it here in full, and will likely refer back to this post from a more informed future post.<\/p>\n

MSGID\/GENADMIN\/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI\/JTWC\/\/
\nSUBJ\/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING\/\/
\nRMKS\/
\n1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 040
\nDOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08W
\n01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
\nMAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
\nWIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
\n—
\nWARNING POSITION:
\n210600Z — NEAR 30.4N 140.8E
\nMOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 125 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
\nPOSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
\nPOSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
\nPRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
\nMAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
\nWIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
\nREPEAT POSIT: 30.4N 140.8E
\n—
\nFORECASTS:
\n12 HRS, VALID AT:
\n211800Z — 30.2N 142.5E
\nMAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
\nWIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
\nVECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG\/ 08 KTS
\n—
\n24 HRS, VALID AT:
\n220600Z — 31.0N 144.0E
\nMAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
\nWIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
\nVECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG\/ 10 KTS
\n—
\n36 HRS, VALID AT:
\n221800Z — 32.7N 145.3E
\nMAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
\nWIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
\nVECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG\/ 17 KTS
\n—
\nEXTENDED OUTLOOK:
\n48 HRS, VALID AT:
\n230600Z — 35.6N 147.3E
\nMAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
\nWIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
\nBECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
\nVECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG\/ 17 KTS
\n—
\n72 HRS, VALID AT:
\n240600Z — 41.4N 151.9E
\nMAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
\nWIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
\nEXTRATROPICAL
\n—
\nREMARKS:
\n210900Z POSITION NEAR 30.4N 141.2E.
\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
\nSOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
\nTHE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
\nDEPICTS A FILLING, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED AND CLOUD-FREE LOW-LEVEL
\nCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MSI ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE
\nFIELD OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS FLOWING DOWN THE KANTO AND INTO THE
\nSYSTEM. A 202349Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS THE HIGHEST WINDS ASSOCIATED
\nWITH THE SYSTEM ARE DISPLACED AWAY FROM THE LLCC, IN THE
\nNORTHEASTERLIES OFF-SHORE OF TOKYO AND IN THE CONVERGENT
\nSOUTHWESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS THE
\nONLY AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION, AND THAT IS DUE TO STRAIGHT-LINE
\nCONVERGENCE WITHIN THE GRADIENT FLOW.<\/p>\n

[pullquote]NOT SO FAST![\/pullquote]<\/p>\n

BOTH A 201637Z AMSRE AND A
\n202333Z SSMI MICROWAVE SERIES SHOWS A BROAD, OPEN LLCC WITH NO DEEP
\nCONVECTION ANYWHERE NEAR THE CORE. ATSUGI AND YOKOTA ARE REPORTING
\nTEMPERATURE FALLS OF 20 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT FROM THEIR PRE-08W
\nCONDITIONS. THE MOISTURE FRONT LIES BETWEEN HANEDA AIRPORT (RJTT)
\nAND HACHIOJIMA (RJTH), AS THERE IS AN EIGHT DEGREE CELSIUS DEW POINT
\nCONTRAST BETWEEN THE TWO STATIONS, AND HACHIOJIMA IS STILL IN THE
\nTROPICAL AIR. THE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
\nOVER THE KANTO COMBINED WITH THE MERGE OF THE SYSTEM WITH AN
\nEXTENSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC
\nFROM OFF-SHORE OF JAPAN INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA GIVE TD 08W THE
\nSIGNATURE OF A SYSTEM THAT IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
\nAND FORMING A WAVE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. NOT SO FAST,
\nHOWEVER. HI-RES VISUAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE LLCC IS SEPARATED SLIGHTLY
\nFROM THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY, AND AMSU TEMPERATURE PROFILES STILL
\nSHOW MID-LEVEL WARM ANOMALIES TYPICAL OF A MATURE TROPICAL SYSTEM.
\n500 MB HEIGHT VALUES ARE ALSO TROPICAL. FURTHERMORE, THE
\nSOUTHEASTWARD COURSE OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO ALLOW IT TO OPEN SOME
\nMORE SEPARATION FROM THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.<\/p>\n

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
\nSTILL LESS THAN 20 KNOTS, NOT TYPICAL OF A SYSTEM UNDERGOING NORMAL
\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, AND VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE
\nSYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE PGTW 210000Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
\nANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TD 08W EXISTS IN A MODERATELY DIFFLUENT REGION
\nVERY CLOSE TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION
\nSHOWS THAT THE POLAR FRONT JET IS WELL EAST OF THE LLCC, DIVING DOWN
\nALONG THE 150TH MERIDIAN DUE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN
\nSEA OF JAPAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 200MB ANALYSIS REVEAL THAT THE
\nNORTHWESTERLIES FLOWING OVER THE TOHOKU REGION AND TOWARDS TD 08W
\nARE ACTUALLY A FINGER OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET, WHICH HAS BEEN
\nDISPLACED POLEWARD DUE TO THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. ALL IN ALL THEN, TD
\n08W EXISTS IN AN EXTREMELY COMPLEX, ATYPICAL ENVIRONMENT AND IS
\nLIKEWISE SHOWING ATYPICAL BEHAVIORS.<\/p>\n

[pullquote]DIFFICULT TO VIEW WITHOUT SKEPTICISM[\/pullquote]<\/p>\n

MODEL GUIDANCE DID FAIRLY WELL
\nTO PREDICT THE SOUTHEASTWARD TURN IN THE TRACK, AT LEAST FROM INSIDE
\n72, BUT ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS AND
\nTHE INTENSITY DURING THAT PHASE. MOST INDICATE THAT TD 08W WILL
\nUNDERGO AN EXTREMELY SLOW EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND DEVELOP
\nSUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT IS FORCED POLEWARD ALONG THE
\nWESTERN BOUNDARY OF A THE BLOCKING RIDGE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE
\nWESTERN PACIFIC. MANY ALSO PREDICT TD 08W WILL MAINTAIN TROPICAL
\nHEIGHT VALUES AT 500 MB AS FAR POLEWARD AS THE KURILS, WHICH IS
\nDIFFICULT TO VIEW WITHOUT SKEPTICISM.<\/p>\n

[pullquote]CONSENSUS IS BEING DISTORTED BY AN\u00a0INCOHERENT GFDN TRACK[\/pullquote]<\/p>\n

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
\nFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF WARM CORE
\nCHARACTERISTICS ONLY THROUGH 35N (APPROXIMATELY TAU 48). GIVEN THAT
\nTHE LLCC IS MOVING UNDER A REGION OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
\nAND INCREASING DIVERGENCE, MILD RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT
\n48 HOURS IS PLAUSIBLE. AFTER TAU 48, THE SHARP DROP-OFF IN SEA
\nSURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL WEAKEN WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SYSTEM
\nREGARDLESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
\nBETWEEN ECMWF AND JGSM, AS CONSENSUS IS BEING DISTORTED BY AN
\nINCOHERENT GFDN TRACK.NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND
\n220900Z.\/\/
\nNNNN<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\r\n
\r\n \r\n <\/i>\r\n <\/a>\r\n <\/span>\r\n<\/div>
\r\n \r\n <\/i>\r\n <\/a>\r\n <\/span>\r\n<\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This is one of the most interesting weather updates I have had the pleasure to read, especially since it concerns the fate of a system which used to be a menacing typhoon, and then a collapsing tropical storm, and is at the time of this writing, a mere tropical depression. \u00a0From reading the series of these updates, I get the feeling that there has been lively debate (possibly with thrown crockery) at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center<\/a>, which uniformly turns in a great product. I reproduce it here in full, and will likely refer back to this post from a more informed future post.<\/p>\n

MSGID\/GENADMIN\/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI\/JTWC\/\/
SUBJ\/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING\/\/
RMKS\/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 040
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL … Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":34128,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22,250,270],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6089","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-geek","category-japan","category-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/balldiamondball.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6089","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/balldiamondball.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/balldiamondball.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/balldiamondball.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/34128"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/balldiamondball.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6089"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/balldiamondball.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6089\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/balldiamondball.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6089"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/balldiamondball.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6089"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/balldiamondball.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6089"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}