I suppose this vexes every political movement, but the pragma\/dogma dilemma is particularly striking the Tea Party groups. \u00a0On one hand, the Tea Party is largely a subset of traditionally Republican voters, with a healthy dose of libertarians and Constitutional fundamentalists thrown in. \u00a0These are the people who found the Republican party too passive and pliable in years past. \u00a0This makes them a naturally ideological movement, prone to reject a reasonable candidate with a decent shot at winning because he or she fails one or more hot-button tests.<\/p>\n
[pullquote]they were still furious at Republicans, but mainly for being too much like the marxists across the aisle[\/pullquote]<\/p>\n
On the other hand, these are in large part the people who stayed home in 2006 and 2008, and saw the horror of their ways by 2010. \u00a0They were still furious at Republicans, but mainly for being too much like the marxists across the aisle. \u00a0When push came to shove, as Peggy Noonan pointed out<\/a> quite early, the Tea Party did not break off and try to field an actual third party. \u00a0The deep wisdom of this is as obvious as the results were rewarding. \u00a0This gives them a one-and-zero record of pragmatist victories.<\/p>\n I have a theory that all of mankind’s problems are caused either by moral hazard or a poorly-designed database. \u00a0In this case, I’ll take the moral hazard as the likely cause. \u00a0The difficulty for a “subset” movement is to resist becoming a splinter. \u00a0Splinters not only lose support from the main, but they have a disproportionate amount of power over the main group through a Kingmaker<\/a> effect. \u00a0Yet if there is no credible threat of the subset withdrawing from the \u00a0majority, then they have no real effect, and the majority cannot thereby be convinced.<\/p>\n Several pundits right and left have remarked that the Tea Party is dead now, \u00a0yet I assure them that this is not the case. \u00a0People like me have despaired of convincing the likes of John Boehner that the likes of Hal Rogers must go. \u00a0And so we watch and wait for targets of opportunity. \u00a0If the Republican party feels that the coast is clear, this is an illusion. \u00a0The Tea Party is in the tunnels underfoot, the canopy overhead. \u00a0Newt Gingrich discovered that broad swathes of the right will no longer be bought off with a bit of double-talk the way they always had.<\/p>\n Much will depend upon the GOP field’s response to events of the last two years. \u00a0The foot-dragging and “hush now” negotiations over the Continuing Resolutions, with our only effective leverage off the table before it even began, was an infuriating display of GOP-knows-best, and will not be forgotten. \u00a0Issues like this burn in the memory of sidelined and perhaps even betrayed Tea Party supporters from coast to coast. \u00a0To top it off, the Republican leadership won’t deign to visit center-right outlets, but spend their media time playing pinch-and-squeal on the leftist mainstream shows.<\/p>\n [pullquote]the GOP knows that it can abuse the base to an unprecedented degree, because no matter how bad they get, they can’t approach the badness of the Obama administration[\/pullquote]<\/p>\n This is the other side of the moral hazard: the GOP knows that it can abuse the base to an unprecedented degree, because no matter how bad they get, they can’t approach the badness of the Obama administration. \u00a0This is the dirty, seamy side of politics, where your own friends count on your mutual enemy for contrast, to hold you hostage for trips you do NOT want to take. \u00a0Not in my life has there been so troublesome a “hand that feeds” issue on the right.<\/p>\n Yet, taking potshots at Republicans is really not the point. \u00a0At this stage, I am quite comfortable with open battles between candidates and faction–it is the only way we can weed out bozos like Newt Gingrich. \u00a0But there will come a time to close ranks and present a unified front. \u00a0Will the Tea Party be able to hold their numbers through that process?<\/p>\n I sincerely hope so: the fate of the Republic turns on this election.<\/p>\n I suppose this vexes every political movement, but the pragma\/dogma dilemma is particularly striking the Tea Party groups. \u00a0On one hand, the Tea Party is largely a subset of traditionally Republican voters, with a healthy dose of libertarians and Constitutional fundamentalists thrown in. \u00a0These are the people who found the Republican party too passive and pliable in years past. \u00a0This makes them a naturally ideological movement, prone to reject a reasonable candidate with a decent shot at winning because he or she fails one or more hot-button tests.<\/p>\n [pullquote]they were still furious at Republicans, … Continue reading The Tea Party constellation of groups and individuals is in a state of flux. \u00a0Central to the change is the strategy to take in 2012; pragmatism or dogmatism, and frankly, it will require both.<\/h4>\n